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Health officials are urging Gov. Gary Herbert to return coronavirus restrictions to the “orange” level statewide if Utah does not get down to an average 200 new cases per day by July 1.
“We are quickly getting to a point where the only viable option to manage spread and deaths will be a complete shutdown,” warns a memo that Dr. Angela Dunn, the state epidemiologist, distributed Friday to state and local health officials.
The document from the Utah Department of Health — which Dunn said was presented to leaders of the state’s coronavirus response — warns that contact tracing and testing will not be enough to curb the rapid spread of COVID-19.
A surge began 12 days after Herbert loosened restrictions by moving nearly all of the state to “yellow” or “low” risk status, the memo notes. On Monday, the state reported 444 new cases — the 26th consecutive day with more than 200 new cases.
“This might be our last chance for course correction,” the memo states. “Utahns care about these colors. They change their actions based on them. They are the key messaging tool to the public.”
Absent a drastic reduction in new cases, switching back to orange “will send the message to Utahns that this outbreak continues to be a serious problem, and state leadership is committed to saving lives and preventing a complete economic shutdown.”
The memo, which was sent less than an hour after Herbert moved much of rural Utah from “yellow” to “green” — or the “new normal” level of vigilance — urges state officials to stop lessening restrictions until July 1 and mandate face coverings “either by government or business enforcement.”
If state leaders will not do that, UDOH wrote, “we need to be clear with the public about why decisions are being made lessening restrictions.” The reasons, health officials wrote, are “economic, not health.”
And things will get worse if Utah’s outbreak does not change course in a matter of weeks.
“We have heard from the [Utah Hospital Association, University of Utah Health, and Intermountain Healthcare] that hospitals are going to exceed their capacity to care for individuals within the next 4-8 weeks,” the memo states.
As of Monday, 171 coronavirus patients were in hospitals — up 21 from Thursday, when at least eight counties had already filled more than half their intensive care unit beds, and seven counties had filled more than half their regular hospital beds, the memo states.
That includes Salt Lake County, which has most of the state’s hospital beds. As of Thursday, 67% of the county’s ICU beds and 62% of its regular beds were occupied.
“Once we run out of beds at tertiary care hospitals on the Wasatch Front, there is no state ability to care for the critically ill,” the memo reports. The state should be ready to open alternate care facilities, health officials wrote.
The spike in new cases is no longer tied to an individual large outbreak or more widespread testing.
“Testing has plateaued, indicating that increase in cases is NOT due to increase in testing,” the memo states.
The rate of positive results has risen accordingly. For the past week, 12.5% of patients tested received positive results — way up from the 7.6% who tested positive the week before.
The new cases are overwhelming contact tracers, health officials warned — a “key element to controlling an infectious disease outbreak.”
“However, it becomes less effective as the number of contacts per case increases, and as the public perceives lower risk and does not adhere to quarantine recommendations,” the memo states. “Since going to yellow, we have increased our number of contacts [per] case from approximately five to over 20. For contact tracing to be effective as a tool to stopping the spread of COVID-19, it needs to be paired with polices that limit the number of close contacts per person.
“We are exceeding our capacity to effectively and efficiently conduct contact tracing due to the surge in cases and number of contacts per case.”
In total, 17,906 Utahns have been diagnosed with coronavirus. Of those, 1,192 have been hospitalized and 158 have died. Health officials reported no new deaths in Utah since Sunday.
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June 23, 2020 at 03:31AM
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Utah health official warns of 'complete shutdown' if coronavirus cases don't drop soon - Salt Lake Tribune
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