Tuesday, April 14, 2020
News 12 at 6 O’Clock/NBC at 7
AUGUSTA, GA (WRDW/WAGT) -- Two researchers still don’t believe the latest data on COVID-19 is an accurate picture of how many people are infected.
Simply put, data only accounts for cases of coronavirus we know, so they wanted to find the cases we don't know about.
MOBILE USERS: Click here to see the researcher's model for COVID-19.
The researchers are hoping their model makes it to President Donald Trump’s desk.
When you think of medical research, complex data and information is likely what comes to mind.
But Dr. Arni Rao at Augusta University teamed up with colleague Dr. Steven Krantz at another university hundreds of miles away to fight the problem with another problem -- a math problem.
"Most of the people you hear talking from the President on down are really going by the seat of their pants,” Krantz said. “They're not dealing with quantitative information and Arni and I are trying to provide the kind of quantitative information that will make a difference.”
Krantz is joining us from St. Louis where he's a professor at Washington University. This is the first interview they've done together with their model.
"How can we predict an epidemic, given that there are only partially reported cases because reporting is never complete,” Rao said.
So they came up with a way to determine a "transmission probability" from places hit first -- and hit the hardest -- like China, Italy, and Iran.
Those are also places where the virus was the most devastating -- completely overwhelming hospitals.
"Actual pandemic preparedness depends on true cases in the population, whether or not they are identified,” the pair wrote in their model.
Which their models prove true for Germany with a very low death rate. Their lines are in agreement. But then, you see what they found for the United States in March. Not good. They believe 80 percent of those infected in the U.S. were never identified or reported.
"But then when we recalibrated the model, on April 6, that shows that every two out of three, at least, perhaps got identified already,” Rao said.
Meaning they now believe just 30 percent of all cases in the U.S. aren't accounted for. They say knowing that could be a game-changer for our state and local governments.
Krantz hopes his new data will help U.S. leadership make more informed decisions.
“I hope they'll provide some real leadership,” Krantz said.
They are also in touch with scientists at the CDC, hoping math combines with medicine to help those on the front lines form the best battle plan they can.
Copyright 2020 WRDW/WAGT. All rights reserved.
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I-TEAM: Local researcher, colleague doing deep dive to discover actual number of COVID-19 cases in US - WRDW-TV
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